Keywords
prevalence
regional differences
Ukraine
Ivano-Frankivsk region
aging
How to Cite
Abstract
Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is one of the leading non-communicable pandemics. In Ukraine, officially registered prevalence
remains lower than in most Central and Eastern European countries; however, substantial underdiagnosis may mask the
true epidemiological situation. Aim: to assess the dynamics of T2D prevalence in Ukraine and neighboring countries during
2013-2022 and identify regional differences within Ukraine (2013-2017). Material and methods. Open data from World
Health Organization (WHO), Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Global Burden of Disease, the Public
Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine were used. Age-standardized
prevalence and incidence per 100,000 population were calculated, and correlation and regression analyses were performed.
Results. In 2022, the age-standardized prevalence of T2D in Ukraine was 4,449 per 100,000 (an increase of 24.2% since 2013), the
lowest value among six Central and Eastern European countries: Ukraine, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Croatia, and Poland
(with regional average of 34%). When adjusted for underdiagnosis, the true prevalence may reach ~7,400 per 100,000. During
2013-2017, the highest baseline prevalence was recorded in the Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi, and Cherkasy regions, whereas the
most rapid growth occurred in predominantly rural western regions (an inverse correlation with urbanization level, r=0.49).
Conclusions. The officially low prevalence of T2D in Ukraine is largely an artefact of underdiagnosis. The fastest registered
growth is observed in rural western regions, which is associated with improved case detection and population aging. The
high dispensary coverage in the Ivano-Frankivsk region indicates effective organization of care; however, stable incidence and
accumulation of chronic cases necessitate intensified primary prevention of obesity and early screening.
References
GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet. 2018 Nov 10;392(10159):1789-858. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32279-7. Erratum in: Lancet. 2019 Jun 22;393(10190):e44. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31047-5.
The Lancet. Diabetes: a defining disease of the 21st century. Lancet. 2023 Jun 24;401(10394):2087. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01296-5.
International Diabetes Federation. IDF Diabetes Atlas, 11th ed. Brussels: International Diabetes Federation [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Dec 15]. Available from: https://diabetesatlas.org/resources/idf-diabetes-atlas-2025.
Accili D, Deng Z, Liu Q. Insulin resistance in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Nat Rev Endocrinol. 2025 Jul;21(7):413-26. doi: 10.1038/s41574-025-01114-y.
Ministry of Health of Ukraine. World Diabetes Day: over 1.3 million Ukrainians live with this diagnosis – what you need to know about the disease [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Dec 13]. Available from: https://moz.gov.ua/uk/vsesvitnij-den-borotbiiz-cukrovim-diabetom-ponad-1-3-mln-ukrayinciv-ta-ukrayinokzhivut-iz-cim-diagnozom-sho-treba-znati-pro-hvorobu.
Health Index Ukraine 2023. Results of the national study [Internet]. 2024 [cited 2025 Dec 10]. Available from: https://healthindex.com.ua/HI_Report_UA_2023_EN.pdf.
Tymochkin SS, Bayliak MM. Global trends in obesity: socioeconomic and regional influences. J Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpath Natl Univ Biol. 2024 Dec 29;11:66-77. doi:10.15330/jpnubio.11.66-77.
Lushchak VI, Covasa M, Abrat OB, Mykytyn TV, Tverdokhlib IZ, Storey KB, et al. Risks of obesity and diabetes development in the population of the Ivano-Frankivsk region in Ukraine. EXCLI J. 2023 Sep 25;22:1047-54. doi: 10.17179/excli2023-6296.
World Health Organization. Diabetes, prevalence (%) [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2025 Dec 13]. Available from: https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/prevalence-ofdiabetes-age-standardized.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Interactive data visuals, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Dec 13]. Available from: https://www.healthdata. org/data-tools-practices/interactive-data-visuals.